Method & sources
Open model, open assumptions, open to challenge.
Every figure on this page is generated from a single structured data file (assumptions.json) by a ~150-line Python model. Each input carries a provenance tag: measured from a published source, derived computed from measured inputs, or assumed — a scenario judgment explicitly flagged for challenge.
Primary sources include Statistics Canada, the Canada Energy Regulator, Budget 2025, the Major Projects Office, the Canada Infrastructure Bank, IEEFA, ACER, the World Nuclear Association, USGS, JERA/METI, the European Commission (CRMA, CBAM), and bank economics teams (RBC, TD, Scotiabank). Four full research briefs with source URLs back every figure on this site.
Found an error? Disagree with a share? Open an issue or a pull request — the point of publishing the model is to be corrected in public.
The technical apparatus, in one place
Key technical apparatus: a project-by-project sources-and-uses ledger (21 named projects, theme-differentiated financing-source weighting calibrated to real sector precedent — e.g. LNG Canada's sponsor-JV structure vs. BC Hydro-style provincial rate-base financing — with illustrative tenor/DSCR by theme); a structural gravity-model grounding for sector diversion-share assumptions (Cipollina & Salvatici 2010 meta-analytic RTA elasticity ~30-45% central estimate net of publication-bias correction, Disdier & Head 2008 distance elasticity ~-0.9 to -1.1, discounted against Canada's own CETA ex-post preference-utilization rate of 49-70%, cross-checked against the 2025-26 realized trade-diversion shock); a trade-by-trade labor/wage-escalation model (BuildForce Canada CLF 2026-2035, national net shortfall 34,300 workers, reconciled against the superseded 2025-2034 edition's 108,300 figure); an evidence-tier convention (SIGNED/PROVEN, STRESSED, CONSTRUCTIVE) applied uniformly across energy-swap, auto-pivot, and all post-v0.4 modules; and a six-stage US-counter-move game tree informing the sequencing doctrine.