Leverage: what America cannot quickly replace
Deterrence needs teeth — every export lever paired with a signed alternative buyer, and the proceeds fund the exit.
| Commodity | US dependence | US substitution time | Instrument | Alternative buyers | Proceeds fund |
|---|
The export-levy framework: incidence matters — levies the US buyer pays
C$6–16B/yr
central levy envelope (C$13–24B upper bound) — incidence measured, not assumed
US$5/bbl
durable crude levy setting (US$10 as spike-only) — strengthening as tidewater capacity grows
C$2–4B/yr
central Tariff Adjustment & Retraining Fund (C$3–6B at the upper envelope)
90 days
automatic full sunset after US tariff repeal — built to be dismantled
Levy-eligible: passes all three tests
| Product | Levy | Revenue (C$B/yr) | Why the US pays, not Canada | Producer protection |
|---|
Deliberately excluded — and why
| Product | Why a levy would backfire |
|---|
The legal framework, in brief
See the Legal Annex for the full instrument-by-instrument legal basis, international-law status, and what still needs independent counsel review.
Revenue recycling:
| Share | Destination | Why |
|---|
Choosing the instrument: levy vs quota vs tariff
Who actually pays — the incidence picture
| Instrument | Use when | Who pays | Specific examples | What it replaces |
|---|