Gravity model

Structural gravity-model grounding for the diversion shares

"Gravity model" isn't a metaphor borrowed loosely from physics — trade economists use the term because bilateral trade behaves the way Newtonian gravity behaves between two masses: it scales up with the size of each economy and scales down with the distance and friction between them. A trade agreement is one of the biggest ways to cut that friction, the same way a bridge cuts the effective distance between two towns. This page is the site's stress test on itself: it doesn't just assert a diversion share for each sector, it checks that share against what CETA — a real agreement Canada already signed with Europe — actually achieved once friction dropped, so the numbers below are anchored to a measured precedent, not a guess.