Canada Export Pivot — Proposed Plan

An Open-Source, Fully Developed and Costed Plan · August 2026

How Canada decouples its export economy from the United States — what to build, what it costs, how to pay for it, and what markets and buyers to target. Every number traces to a cited source or a flagged assumption — see Method & Sources for the full methodology.

US share of Canadian exports
Current — real, measured today
71.7%
of everything Canada sells to other countries (its "merchandise exports") still goes to the US
down from 75.9% in 2024 — the lowest share since the early 1980s
This is not a prediction — it's what Statistics Canada already measured for 2025. It means roughly 7 of every 10 dollars Canada earns from selling goods abroad comes from one customer: the United States. That concentration is the entire problem this plan is trying to fix.
5-year build cost
Proposed — this plan's own price tag
—
is what this plan proposes to spend building new ports, pipelines, power lines and factories over 5 years (2026–2031)
out of a C$—B total pipeline of projects
This is NOT money already spent or committed — it's this plan's own costed proposal for what it would take to build the infrastructure described on this site. "Capex" is short for capital expenditure: one-time spending on physical things (ports, pipelines, factories) as opposed to day-to-day operating costs.
Redirected + new exports
Proposed — a projection, not a guarantee
—
a year in exports this plan estimates it can either redirect away from the US or create as new sales, within 5 years
rising to C$—B a year by 20 years out, if everything goes to plan
This is this plan's own forecast, not a current fact. It combines two things: (1) exports Canada already makes that get sold to a different country instead of the US, and (2) brand-new exports (like new LNG — liquefied natural gas — terminals) that didn't exist before. Every number here is checked against a lower, more conservative case elsewhere on the site.
Government debt-to-GDP
Current — a measured comparison, with caveats
13.3% / 42%
how much debt the Canadian government carries, measured two different ways, compared to the size of the whole economy (GDP)
the G7 group of major economies averages about 101% on the same first measure, excluding Canada
"GDP" (Gross Domestic Product) is the total value of everything Canada's economy produces in a year — it's the standard yardstick for how "big" debt is. The 13.3% figure is from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and only counts money the federal, provincial and local governments together actually owe outside government (it doesn't count money one government account owes another, like pension funds). The 42% figure is a stricter, federal-government-only number that Statistics Canada tracks differently. Neither is wrong — they're different rulers measuring the same thing, and Canada has more room to borrow than most other G7 countries either way, but "more room" is not the same as "free money."

This plan in 90 seconds

Where the US export share is headed, under this plan

Same story, by sector

All 10 tracked export sectors, from today through 2030/2035/2040 — total value and destination mix. Two real growth vectors sit outside this chart entirely because they aren't yet priced: nuclear power (SMR/CANDU export, uranium used at home) and the Canada-Ukraine-NATO defense compact, both zero at the signed/proven tier by design — see those pages directly. A deeper, year-by-year breakdown of every sector lives on the Who Buys page.

Still US-bound Europe Japan + Korea Greater China India + ASEAN Rest of world

This plan's shape

Top 5 risks

Top 5 asks of government

    Explore every module

    41 deep-dive pages, grouped by theme. Click any card to go deeper — each page has its own evidence, risks, and (where available) video context.

    The core plan

    Why now
    The dependence is structural, and the relationship broke in 2025-26. With historical context videos.
    Guiding Principles
    The doctrine: no partner above a third of exports, by growing the denominator.
    The sequence
    Build quietly, negotiate loudly — the order everything happens in.
    Leverage
    What America cannot quickly replace.
    What's locked
    What's physically locked in, and what can ship today.
    The plan
    Three horizons, laid out.
    The bridge
    2026-2031, before new infrastructure arrives.
    The build
    Every project, every dollar.
    Map
    Where everything is, and where it must go.
    The cost
    The five-year price tag, broken down.
    Press room
    Real news coverage on the tariff dispute, USMCA review, and diversification progress.

    Financing the build

    Financing
    How C$150B splits across private capital, pensions, and government.
    Prepay scenario
    Getting paid up front for future resource exports — and its real limits.
    The sweetener
    Non-voting equity stakes and foreign builders as extra financing.
    Sources & uses
    Every project's financing mix, tenor and DSCR — closes to the dollar.

    Who buys, and what changes

    Who buys
    Measured demand from real buyers, sector by sector.
    Maximum exposure scenario
    If the US relationship collapsed entirely — not the plan's actual target, a stress test of the theoretical ceiling.
    Growth impact
    What the build does to GDP and jobs, construction and operating.
    Macro
    Jobs, unemployment, deficits, debt — and the currency risk this plan's own success creates.
    vs status quo
    The dividend: this plan compared to doing nothing.
    The prize
    Five compounding gains if this all works.
    Gravity model
    Grounding the diversion-share assumptions in published trade economics.
    Labor model
    Trade-by-trade shortages and wage escalation, BuildForce-linked.

    Technology and industry compacts

    Auto pivot
    Chinese EV technology, built in Canadian plants.
    China compact
    Two term sheets: allies get financing, China gets jobs and capacity.
    Parallel compacts
    The same playbook, run with Japan, Korea and the EU.
    Partner playbook
    Every country, every deal, spelled out.
    Nuclear power
    CANDU/SMR export, domestic clean power, and Canadian uranium used at home.
    Ukraine/NATO compact
    A signed drone deal, Canada's diaspora edge, and NATO's 5%-by-2035 spending wave.

    The Arctic and energy

    Arctic gambit
    Icebreakers, the Northwest Passage, and the northern corridor.
    Electricity → molecules
    Why Canadian power can't be exported directly — and what to ship instead.
    Energy swap
    Electrify at home, export the freed molecules abroad.
    Molecule balance
    Every exported unit of oil and gas, traced to one physical route.
    Kelp bioeconomy
    EU alternative feed and blue-carbon credits.
    Turkey/Kazakh corridor
    A real uranium JV, and a theoretical processing route, told straight.
    Public diplomacy & advocacy
    Hundreds of millions annually: a domestic Buy Canadian campaign, a US-facing truth campaign, sub-national state engagement, and a funded international-accountability investigation.

    Strategy, risk and rules

    Strategic pillars
    Tax reform, a reinsurance pool, credential mobility, and the Africa chapter.
    Escalation game
    The six-stage US counter-move tree, and how each stage ends.
    Scenario explorer
    Move the dials yourself — every output recomputes live.
    Honest constraints
    What this plan admits it cannot do.
    Legal annex
    Every instrument, its legal authority, its current status.
    Crown ring-fence
    How the government absorbs risk private capital won't touch.
    The institution
    A draft statute for the delivery body that outlasts one government.
    Method & sources
    How every number on this site is built, and where to challenge it.