Maximum exposure scenario: what if the US relationship collapsed entirely?
Not this plan's actual target — the plan's real goal is the One-Third Rule (~35% US share by 2040, not zero). This is a separate stress test: if Canada lost the US market entirely, what would it take to replace everything replaceable?
Sector by sector: what can be replaced, and what it costs
| Sector | US exports (C$B/yr) | Max replaceable | Capex (C$B) | Basis |
|---|
Roughly 80% of US-bound exports can eventually find other buyers — at a price. The residual ~20% (deeply integrated auto assembly, some machinery lines, border-dependent services) has no alternative buyer at any capex; this plan's answer there is domestic substitution and product transformation, not diversion. The build runs about two decades at under 1% of GDP a year — a generational project, but far below wartime mobilization (45%+ of GDP), and smaller per year than what provincial utilities already spend.