Electricity → molecules

Electricity leaves as molecules, not electrons

The one export that physically cannot be redirected — and what to do instead.

Canada exports ~33 TWh of electricity a year, worth ~C$3.3B — every kilowatt over fixed interconnects into the US grid. There is no cable to Europe or Asia and never will be. The export path for Canadian clean electricity is to convert it into shippable products:

• Blue ammonia (Alberta): cheap natural gas + carbon capture, shipped to Japanese coal plants for co-firing (JERA has already run a 1-GW unit on 20% ammonia) and into Korea's clean-hydrogen power auctions — the world's first with 15-year contracts. This is the bankable near-term route; the benchmark plant (US Gulf, 1.4 Mt/yr) cost US$4B and reached final investment decision in 2025.
• Green hydrogen/ammonia (Atlantic): wind-powered electrolysis for the German market under the Canada–Germany Hydrogen Alliance. Honesty required: Canadian green ammonia costs ~C$4.8–6.3/kg-H2 before shipping against a ~€4.5/kg delivered European clearing price — not yet competitive. It becomes a 2030s wave as electrolyzer costs fall; the €400M bilateral H2Global window buys the first tranche.
• Power-to-fuels (Québec): the ~C$4B Projet Mauricie converts 1 GW of new renewables into hydrogen and synthetic methane from 2028 — the template for monetizing hydro-province surpluses. Sustainable aviation fuel and e-methanol follow the same logic.
• Embedded electricity: every tonne of hydro-smelted aluminum, every battery-grade mineral processed with clean power, is an electricity export in solid form — and the EU's carbon border tariff now pays a premium for exactly that.

Watch: how LNG works, and Canada's own uncertainty about it

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