What the build does to the economy
Two effects: a demand-side boost while building, and a permanent supply-side gain once operating — kept honest by separating new GDP from protected GDP.
Base program (2026–2031)
Full-replacement program (~22 years)
Three things the headline numbers understate: terms-of-trade gains compound — every export corridor that ends single-buyer captivity narrows the discount on Canadian resources (TMX demonstrably narrowed the heavy-oil differential); the capability spillover is real — a country that rebuilds its engineering, trades and megaproject-delivery capacity keeps it for the next generation of projects; and the insurance value is the point — the "GDP protected" line is what Canada does not lose in the scenario where US market access actually collapses, which after August 2026 is no longer a tail risk.