Canada Export Pivot — Proposed Plan

An Open-Source, Fully Developed and Costed Plan · August 2026

How Canada decouples its export economy from the United States — what to build, what it costs, how to pay for it, and what markets and buyers to target. Every number traces to a cited source or a flagged assumption — see Method & Sources for the full methodology.

US share of Canadian exports

Current — real, measured today

71.7%

of everything Canada sells to other countries (its "merchandise exports") still goes to the US

down from 75.9% in 2024 — the lowest share since the early 1980s

This is not a prediction — it's what Statistics Canada already measured for 2025. It means roughly 7 of every 10 dollars Canada earns from selling goods abroad comes from one customer: the United States. That concentration is the entire problem this plan is trying to fix.

5-year build cost

Proposed — this plan's own price tag

—

is what this plan proposes to spend building new ports, pipelines, power lines and factories over 5 years (2026–2031)

out of a C$—B total pipeline of projects

This is NOT money already spent or committed — it's this plan's own costed proposal for what it would take to build the infrastructure described on this site. "Capex" is short for capital expenditure: one-time spending on physical things (ports, pipelines, factories) as opposed to day-to-day operating costs.

New non-US exports, per year

Proposed — a projection, not a guarantee

—

an ANNUAL export rate — not a one-time total like the build-cost figure to the left — this plan estimates Canada reaches by year 5, combining exports redirected away from the US and brand-new sales

rising to C$—B a year by 20 years out, if everything goes to plan

This is a forecast, not a current fact — and it's a RATE, not a lump sum: "C$68B/yr by year 5" means exports are running at that annual pace once year 5 arrives, not that C$68B total gets earned across the 5 years combined. It combines two things: (1) exports Canada already makes that get sold to a different country instead of the US, and (2) brand-new exports (like new LNG — liquefied natural gas — terminals) that didn't exist before. Every number here is checked against a lower, more conservative case elsewhere on the site.

Government debt-to-GDP

Current — a measured comparison, with caveats

13.3% / 42%

how much debt the Canadian government carries, measured two different ways, compared to the size of the whole economy (GDP)

the G7 group of major economies averages about 101% on the same first measure, excluding Canada

"GDP" (Gross Domestic Product) is the total value of everything Canada's economy produces in a year — it's the standard yardstick for how "big" debt is. The 13.3% figure is from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and only counts money the federal, provincial and local governments together actually owe outside government (it doesn't count money one government account owes another, like pension funds). The 42% figure is a stricter, federal-government-only number that Statistics Canada tracks differently. Neither is wrong — they're different rulers measuring the same thing, and Canada has more room to borrow than most other G7 countries either way, but "more room" is not the same as "free money." Canada built this debt capacity in the good years — this is what it's for. It's raining now: the tariff shock is the rainy day this fiscal room was saved for, and this plan proposes spending some of it to build the infrastructure that ends the dependence causing the rain in the first place.

This plan in 90 seconds

Where the US export share is headed, under this plan

Same story, by sector

All 10 tracked export sectors, from today through 2030/2035/2040 — total value and destination mix. Two real growth vectors sit outside this chart entirely because they aren't yet priced: nuclear power (SMR/CANDU export, uranium used at home) and the Canada-Ukraine-NATO defense compact, both zero at the signed/proven tier by design — see those pages directly. A deeper, year-by-year breakdown of every sector lives on the Who Buys page.

Still US-bound Europe Japan + Korea Greater China India + ASEAN Rest of world

This plan's shape

Top 5 risks

Top 5 asks of government

Explore every module

41 deep-dive pages, grouped by theme. Click any card to go deeper — each page has its own evidence, risks, and (where available) video context.

The core plan

The dependence is structural, and the relationship broke in 2025-26. With historical context videos.

Guiding Principles

The doctrine: no partner above a third of exports, by growing the denominator.

Build quietly, negotiate loudly — the order everything happens in.

What America cannot quickly replace.

What's physically locked in, and what can ship today.

Three horizons, laid out.

2026-2031, before new infrastructure arrives.

Every project, every dollar.

Where everything is, and where it must go.

The five-year price tag, broken down.

Real news coverage on the tariff dispute, USMCA review, and diversification progress.

Financing the build

How C$150B splits across private capital, pensions, and government.

Prepay scenario

Getting paid up front for future resource exports — and its real limits.

Non-voting equity stakes and foreign builders as extra financing.

Every project's financing mix, tenor and DSCR — closes to the dollar.

Who buys, and what changes

Measured demand from real buyers, sector by sector.

Maximum exposure scenario

If the US relationship collapsed entirely — not the plan's actual target, a stress test of the theoretical ceiling.

What the build does to GDP and jobs, construction and operating.

Jobs, unemployment, deficits, debt — and the currency risk this plan's own success creates.

The dividend: this plan compared to doing nothing.

Five compounding gains if this all works.

Grounding the diversion-share assumptions in published trade economics.

Trade-by-trade shortages and wage escalation, BuildForce-linked.

Technology and industry compacts

Chinese EV technology, built in Canadian plants.

Two term sheets: allies get financing, China gets jobs and capacity.

Parallel compacts

The same playbook, run with Japan, Korea and the EU.

Partner playbook

Every country, every deal, spelled out.

CANDU/SMR export, domestic clean power, and Canadian uranium used at home.

Ukraine/NATO compact

A signed drone deal, Canada's diaspora edge, and NATO's 5%-by-2035 spending wave.

The Arctic and energy

Icebreakers, the Northwest Passage, and the northern corridor.

Electricity → molecules

Why Canadian power can't be exported directly — and what to ship instead.

Electrify at home, export the freed molecules abroad.

Molecule balance

Every exported unit of oil and gas, traced to one physical route.

Kelp bioeconomy

EU alternative feed and blue-carbon credits.

Turkey/Kazakh corridor

A real uranium JV, and a theoretical processing route, told straight.

Public diplomacy & advocacy

Hundreds of millions annually: a domestic Buy Canadian campaign, a US-facing truth campaign, sub-national state engagement, and a funded international-accountability investigation.

Strategy, risk and rules

Strategic pillars

Tax reform, a reinsurance pool, credential mobility, and the Africa chapter.

Escalation game

The six-stage US counter-move tree, and how each stage ends.

Scenario explorer

Move the dials yourself — every output recomputes live.

Honest constraints

What this plan admits it cannot do.

Every instrument, its legal authority, its current status.

Crown ring-fence

How the government absorbs risk private capital won't touch.

The institution

A draft statute for the delivery body that outlasts one government.

Method & sources

How every number on this site is built, and where to challenge it.